Economists slash Swiss GDP growth forecasts
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Economists slash Swiss GDP growth forecasts
Following an increase in exports to the United States in the first quarter, the Swiss economy is bracing itself for a tariff backlash.
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In particular, dark clouds are gathering over the economic outlook for 2026.
The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco) has lowered its forecast for gross domestic product (GDP) growth by about ten basis points for 2025, to 1.3%, and by about forty basis points for 2026, to 1.2%.
The boomerang effect did not affect the KOF economic research centre’s projections for the current year, but led the Zurich-based specialists to reduce their forecasts for next year. GDP is still expected to increase by 1.4% for 2025, but by 1.5% for 2026, compared to 1.9% in the last assessment, the KOF says in its seasonal publication.
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“The international trade war is proving to be even more intense than predicted in the spring and is disrupting economic forecasts even more,” said KOF.
The scenario favoured by academic experts and federal economists is based on the assumption of flat tariffs of 10% on most imports into the US, excluding pharmaceuticals in particular, for the entire period.
Translated from Italian by DeepL/mga
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